Don’t Waste This Chance

I’m not sure who said it first, but the saying has stuck with me.

Under a democracy, the voters pick their representatives. Under gerrymandering, the representatives pick their voters.

Which about says it all.

Choose any side of almost any political issue, and you can make a more or less plausible case for that side. Politics thrives on differences of opinion, and, in more than two centuries of self-government, we Americans have gotten very good at making good cases for bad causes. Indeed, we rather relish advocacy which concocts an ingenious argument for a weak case.

In this context, gerrymandering enjoys a unique distinction – there is simply no good case to be made in the affirmative. When legislators redraw their own districts – using their power to assure their re-election by handpicking the precincts which will make up their new constituencies – they are guilty of conspiracy to undermine the very essence of democracy.

It doesn’t matter which party does it. It doesn’t matter what other, good things the guilty legislators might have done. Any legislator who supports gerrymandering deserves to be defeated – to be crushed – at the next election.

But of course, that seldom happens. With gerrymandering, legislators guilty of the most fundamental breach of faith assure that they will not have to answer for their infidelity.

Gerrymandering is the unforgivable sin. It is also, by its nature, routinely forgiven.

Worst of all, it’s almost impossible to correct. As a practical matter, the only way to end gerrymandering in Virginia would be to amend the state constitution – a process which is controlled by the same legislators whose incumbency and power is assured by gerrymandering.

Short of a mass movement – a virtual citizens’ revolt – there is no way to compel legislators to deny themselves this extraordinary power. The party in the minority might be willing to support reform, but, being in the minority, it is unable to act. For the party in the majority, reform would be – however honorable – an unprecedented act of self-sacrifice.

Only the rarest alignment in the political heavens bodes well for reform. A majority party must stand in real fear of losing power just before a decennial census. Under such conditions, a majority in decline might reasonably try to enact reform before the rising minority gained control of the redistricting process.
In Virginia, in 2007, that rare situation is beginning to take shape. In the wake of Senator Jim Webb’s upset victory over George Allen – Virginia’s most powerful Republican – Virginia Democrats anticipate significant gains in both houses of the General Assembly. With Mark Warner an unannounced – but almost unbeatable – candidate for Governor in 2009, Virginia Republicans fear further Democratic gains in 2009.

Democrats need only three new Senators to gain an evenly-divided upper house – a realistic possibility this November. And, while no one expects the Democrats to overturn the Republican majority in the House of Delegates this year, they will have one more shot in 2009 – possibly aided by Mark Warner’s long coattails.

Thus, in 2011, the year set for the next reapportionment, it is distinctly possible that a slim Democratic majority will control the House of Delegates, with Democrats controlling a divided State Senate by virtue of a Lieutenant Governor elected in tandem with Warmer. In such a case, Democrats would be able to do some gerrymandering of their own.

Even should Republicans retain a narrow margin in one of the two houses, if Governor Warner wields the veto pen, no redistricting bill would pass that didn’t give Democrats the upper hand.

Thus, this year’s Republican majorities stand in realistic fear of losing control of the redistricting process four years hence. In self-defense – as well as to protect their current 8-3 majority in the US House of Representatives – Republicans should be willing to seriously consider claiming the mantle of reform by passing an amendment to end gerrymandering.

Nor should Democrats oppose such an amendment. Democratic victories in 2007 and 2009 are by no means certain. Mark Warner might be well become Vice-President in 2008, throwing the gubernatorial race wide open the following year. Nothing is certain – and the narrowest failure to oust the Republicans would give that party the power to cement its control by redrawing district lines to protect its surviving majorities.

In short, neither party has anything to lose in 2007 by passing a constitutional amendment to reform redistricting. There would be time for second thoughts after this year’s elections – and before considering the amendment for the constitutionally-mandated second time.

Circumstances are as ripe as they are rare for passing an amendment which would – more than any other reform – improve the workings of Virginia’s democracy. To let such an opportunity pass would be unforgivable.